Dollar heads for big weekly loss, political tensions boost yen

US Fed holds rates steady, signals cuts possible later this year

US Fed decision keeps stocks treading water | Article

President Donald Trump said at the White House Thursday afternoon "you'll soon find out" whether the United States meant to strike Iran. U.S. -IRAN TENSIONS Meanwhile, Iran's downing of an unmanned U.S. surveillance drone stoked fears about a military conflict between the two nations following a spate of attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf region.

The Fed on Wednesday kept benchmark rates in the US unchanged. The S&P 500 future picked up almost 0.9% to 2,959. The dollar was on course for its biggest two-day drop against a basket of other currencies in 14 months and dropped 0.5 percent to a half-year low against the Japanese yen.

"Stocks' resilience in the face of growing US-Iranian geopolitical tension is a stark reminder not to fight the Fed".

Powell's rate tilt joined the Fed with global peers such as the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia this week on a path toward more policy stimulus to maintain economic growth.

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But this resilience may be fickle.

With more than 20 years' trading experience, Ed Moya is a market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute fundamental analysis of geo-political events and monetary policies in the US, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa.

Gold prices have gained about $80 so far this month.

The last time an ounce of gold was more than $1,400 was in 2013. The U.S. central bank raised interest rates four times in 2018. It fell to 1.98% Thursday, down from 2.06% late Tuesday.

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"In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion", said the Fed's policy-making committee, dropping its commitment to being "patient" in its policy statement.

The aussie is also a little lagging behind the rest of the major bloc as RBA governor Philip Lowe suggested more rate cuts are to come and that helped to increase odds of one in the upcoming July meeting. Interest rate futures markets now see a 100 per cent probability of a rate cut then, with the only debate in trading circles over whether the cut will 25 basis points or twice that. Expectations for a July cut rose to 100% yesterday, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.

In an interview with the Financial Times this week, Benoît Coeuré, a member of the executive board of the European Central Bank, said the fall in bond yields was sending a "quite alarming" message and painting a "very bleak" picture of the global economy.

"It is unclear how much the Fed may capitulate eventually, but the dollar and Treasury yields have sunk enough at present to encourage fund flows into the precious metal", Howie Lee, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking, said in an email.

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Support awaits at 1.1270 which had the same role next week, then 1.1250 that capped the currency pair last week, and 1.1200 which provided support early this week. A negative yield indicates that bond purchasers would make a loss if they held it to maturity.

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