Global smartphone boom has peaked, International Monetary Fund says

Subhash Garg as economic affairs secretary is the “alternate governor” for India on the IMF’s board of governors

Subhash Garg as economic affairs secretary is the “alternate governor” for India on the IMF’s board of governors

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday revised upwards its 2018 growth forecast for Italy, from 1.4% to 1.5%, following 1.5% past year. The Asian Development Bank and the World Bank have projected the Indian economy to grow at 7.3% in 2018-19.

The IMF foresees that the developed economies will grow faster than their long-term growth potential, thereby narrowing the gap between output and production capacity, especially in Europe.

The economy would grow by 2.4 percent for the euro area, 1.2 percent for Japan, 6.6 percent for China, and 2.9 percent for the United States, said Africa's economy would grow by 3.4 percent this year with the economies of Nigeria and South Africa growing at 2.1 percent and 1.5 percent respectively.

The IMF also sees an inflationary rise from 0.2 percent in 2017 to 0.7 percent in 2018 and 1.3 percent in 2019. "Against that positive backdrop, the prospect of a similarly broad-based conflict over trade presents a jarring picture", Maurice Obstfeld, IMF's Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, said in remarks accompanying the outlook.

However, the Fund cautions that the growth "momentum is not assured", given trade tensions between the United States and China and the expected reversal of the positive effects from the U.S. tax cuts.

Referring to the projected growth rate for India in 2018 and 2019, which is higher than that of the previous year of 2017, the International Monetary Fund explained this is due to the strong private consumption as well as fading transitory effects of the currency exchange initiative and implementation of the GST.

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The IMF said the reforms would improve infrastructure in transport and telecommunication sectors to spur growth. Growth in 2019 was lowered to 1.9 per cent from 2.2 per cent in the January forecast.

But it added that the "recapitalisation should be part of a broader package of financial reforms to improve the governance of public sector banks, and banks' debt recovery mechanisms should be further enhanced".

India is expected to outpace China, registering 7.4 percent growth this year.

The forecasts for China and India, key drivers of global growth, were unchanged from January.

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